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Building a Repeatable Process

Intermediate12 min readLesson 9 of 9

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In short

The eight articles before this one identified a series of separate failures. Read together they turn out to be one failure, and naming it is the only useful thing this article has to offer.

Scope, and this article carries the tightest constraint in the pillar. It supplies no template, no checklist, no worked example of a process, and nothing that terminates in a decision or an allocation. A published process is a system, and this portal does not supply systems. It also does not claim that having a process improves outcomesthe pillar's governing finding is that awareness of an effect does little to remove it, and a process presented as the remedy would claim an efficacy the evidence does not support. What the article does is state what a process can actually do, which is narrower than usual and better supported. This is the final article of Pillar 32 and closes it.

The eight problems were the same problem

ArticleWhat it found
Cognitive BiasesMemory is weighted toward realised outcomes, so self-assessment draws on a biased sample
OvertradingActivity manufactures records that cannot distinguish luck from skill
Why Forecasts FailInformation without scored feedback does not improve calibration
Emotional PitfallsThe person stating a tolerance and the person experiencing a decline are not the same person
Fear of Missing OutThe observer sees outcomes without the positions that produced them

Every one of those is a failure of evidence about oneself, and specifically the absence of a contemporaneous record. In each case the reader is reasoning competently from what is available to them — and what is available is a reconstruction assembled after the outcome was known. Memory supplies the closed positions and not the open ones. A streak supplies the sequence and not the reasoning. A decline supplies the feeling and not the prior intention. A published gain supplies the result and not the entry. Nobody in any of those situations is being careless. They are all trying to learn from a record that was never made. That is the single defect this pillar has been circling, and it is the only one a process addresses.

What a process can do

A process does not improve judgement, and nothing in the evidence reported in this pillar suggests it does. What it does is make judgement inspectable.

Its function is to record what was believed, and why, before the outcome was known. Which is the one input every failure above lacked.

The distinction that makes this describable without becoming a system is between a process and a rule. A rule determines what is decided — buy at this level, hold for this long, allocate this proportion. A process governs how a decision is reached and what is preserved about it. The first is a system and this portal supplies none. The second is a description of practice, and it can be discussed without anyone being told what to conclude.

Properties, described rather than prescribed

Written before the outcome. A record made afterwards is a reconstruction, and it is subject to exactly the selection effects the rest of this pillar documents.

Reasons, not only actions. A list of transactions is a statement of what happened; it contains nothing about what was expected.

Dated. Without a date it is impossible to establish what was known at the time, which is the whole point.

Containing what would change the view. The falsifiability test from Reading Financial Media Critically applies to a reader's own reasoning as much as to anyone else's: a position held for reasons that no observation could contradict is not a position based on reasons.

Worked example

Worked example

Why even this is weaker than it sounds, stated because the alternative would be overselling it. A record is itself subject to selection. People write down the reasoning that reflects well on them, omit the considerations that were embarrassing, and — most commonly — stop maintaining the record during the periods when it would be most informative. The failure mode of a decision record is that it is kept diligently in calm conditions and abandoned in the conditions Emotional Pitfalls describes. So a record does not guarantee an honest sample either. It guarantees only that an honest sample is possible, which is more than the alternative offers and less than a remedy.

What it cannot do

It cannot prevent a bias. The governing finding of this pillar applies to processes as much as to knowledge.

It cannot improve an outcome. A well-documented decision and a badly documented one have the same consequences; the documentation affects what can be learned, not what happens.

It cannot substitute for information, and it cannot resolve the questions Pillar 31 identifies as depending on facts about a person that no framework knows.

The conclusion of Pillar 32, stated plainly. Nothing in this pillar supports the claim that a reader can become unbiased. The evidence points the other way, repeatedly and across several decades of measurement. What the evidence does support is narrower and still worth something: a person who records what they believed and why, before knowing how it turned out, can later examine their own reasoning against a sample that was not assembled to flatter them. That is not a remedy for anything. It is the difference between being able to audit yourself and not being able toand given that every failure in this pillar arises from reasoning about oneself on defective evidence, it is the one improvement that is actually available. You cannot become unbiased. You can become auditable.

Frequently asked

8 questions

Does having a process improve returns?

Nothing in the evidence reported in this pillar suggests it does, and this article does not claim it. A well-documented decision and a badly documented one have the same consequences.

What does a process actually do then?

It makes judgement inspectable. Its function is to record what was believed, and why, before the outcome was known — which is the one input every failure in this pillar lacked.

How were those failures the same failure?

Each is a failure of evidence about oneself. Memory supplies closed positions and not open ones; a streak supplies the sequence and not the reasoning; a decline supplies the feeling and not the prior intention; a published gain supplies the result and not the entry. All of them are attempts to learn from a record that was never made.

What is the difference between a process and a rule?

A rule determines what is decided — buy at this level, allocate this proportion. A process governs how a decision is reached and what is preserved about it. The first is a system and this portal supplies none; the second can be described without telling anyone what to conclude.

What properties does a record need?

To be written before the outcome, to contain reasons rather than only actions, to be dated, and to state what would change the view — since a position held for reasons no observation could contradict is not a position based on reasons.

Is a written record reliable?

Not automatically. People record what reflects well on them, omit what was embarrassing, and most commonly stop maintaining the record during the periods when it would be most informative — kept diligently in calm conditions and abandoned in the difficult ones.

So what is it worth?

A record does not guarantee an honest sample. It guarantees that an honest sample is possible — more than the alternative offers, and less than a remedy.

What is the conclusion of this pillar?

That you cannot become unbiased — the evidence points the other way repeatedly. What is available is the ability to examine your own reasoning against a sample that was not assembled to flatter you. You cannot become unbiased; you can become auditable.

References

Educational and informational only — not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Worked examples use fictional companies and figures.