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The 15-Minute Statement Scan: What to Check First

Intermediate10 min readLesson 18 of 19

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In short

A full set of accounts runs to a hundred pages and most of it is not where the information is.

What this is and is not. This is a reading procedure — a way of orienting yourself in an unfamiliar set of statements and generating questions worth asking. It is not a screening method, not a checklist that produces a verdict, and not a substitute for reading the notes. Fifteen minutes tells you what to look at next; it does not tell you anything about whether to own a company. Figures tie to Wexford Instruments (USD millions).

The point of a structured first pass is to reach the questions quickly — and the sequence matters, because starting in the wrong place produces impressions that the rest of the reading then has to undo.

The sequence

Start with the cash-flow statement. It contains the fewest estimates, and three comparisons come straight off it. Operating cash flow against net income — does profit become cash? Operating cash flow against capital expenditure — how much survives the year's investment? And distributions against free cash flow — were returns funded by the business or the balance sheet? Those three take about two minutes and frame everything else. (This is a working convention rather than a rule — each statement answers something the others cannot.)

Then the income statement, read as growth rates rather than levels. Revenue growth, then gross margin direction, then each expense line's growth against revenue growth. That last comparison is what reveals whether margin movement came from the product or from the cost base — and it is invisible if you read the margins alone.

Then the balance sheet, in four passes. Working capital in days, and whether they are drifting. Debt, with the split between what falls due within a year and what does not, plus coverage. Goodwill against equity rather than assets. And the share count, which moves independently of everything above.

Then the notes, selectively. The auditor's key audit matters, which name where the estimation actually concentrated. The revenue-recognition policy. The debt maturity schedule. Three targeted lookups, not a full read.

What fifteen minutes cannot do

It cannot tell you whether the business is good. Nothing in the statements describes competitive position, management quality, or whether the market is growing.

It cannot value anything. Every figure is historical; value depends on the future.

It cannot distinguish causes. The scan will show you that receivables outran sales or that capital spending exceeded depreciation. It will not tell you why, and the why is usually in the commentary rather than the numbers.

And it cannot substitute for context. Ratios mean different things in different industries, and a first pass with no comparison set is a first pass with no scale.

Worked example

Worked example

Worked example: the scan run on Wexford (canonical figures, USD millions). Cash flow. Operating cash flow 98.3 against net income 62.3 — conversion 1.58×, strong. Less capital expenditure of 78.0, free cash flow is 20.3. Distributions were 30.0147.8% of free cash flow. Income statement. Revenue +13.6%; gross margin 38.5% → 40.0%; every expense line grew at exactly 13.6%, so the margin gain came entirely from gross margin and none from cost discipline. Net income +46.9% — amplification of about three and a half times. Balance sheet. Days sales outstanding 53.1 → 54.8, drifting; days inventory 79.6 → 79.1, improving. Debt 340.0 with 40.0 current, cover 5.56×, net debt 273.7 — up 9.7 despite gross debt falling 20.0. Goodwill 34.5% of equity. Share count fell on a 12.0 buyback. What the scan produced. Not a conclusion — six questions. Why did receivables outpace sales? What is the 78.0 of capital spending buying? Why were distributions run above free cash flow, and is that the pattern or the year? What is behind the goodwill, and what does the impairment test assume? Where does the debt mature? And what did the auditor identify as the hardest judgement? Fifteen minutes turned a hundred pages into six questions, and every one of them is answered somewhere the scan did not go. (Canonical figures; every figure here is one verified in the article that owns it — the scan assembles, it does not compute anew.)

Frequently asked

6 questions

Which statement should I read first?

The cash-flow statement is a reasonable starting point because it contains the fewest estimates, and three useful comparisons come straight off it. That's a practical convention rather than a rule — each statement answers something the others can't.

Why read growth rates rather than levels?

Because levels mostly tell you what industry you're in. Comparing each expense line's growth against revenue growth is what reveals whether margin movement came from the product or the cost base — and that's invisible if you read margins alone.

Which notes are worth opening in a first pass?

Three: the auditor's key audit matters, which name where estimation concentrated; the revenue-recognition policy; and the debt maturity schedule. Targeted lookups rather than a full read.

Can a quick scan tell me if a company is a good investment?

No, and this is worth being blunt about. It can't assess competitive position, management, or market growth; it can't value anything, since all the figures are historical; and it can't tell you why anything moved. It produces questions, not answers.

What did the scan produce on the worked example?

Six questions — about receivables, capital spending, distributions exceeding free cash flow, goodwill, debt maturities, and the auditor's hardest judgement. Every one is answered somewhere the scan didn't reach.

Is this a screening method?

No. A screen filters a universe down to candidates; this orients you within one set of statements. Using it as a screen would apply a fixed set of indicators across many companies, which is precisely the practice the red-flag article argues against.

References

Educational and informational only — not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Worked examples use fictional companies and figures.